SHFE tin prices opened slightly higher in the night session and then fluctuated, while the spot market remained sluggish [SMM Tin Morning News]

SMM Tin Morning Brief on July 29, 2025:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2509) opened slightly higher in the night session but fluctuated downward, closing at 267,300 yuan/mt, down 0.51% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) The 2025 National Conference of Heads of Industrial and Information Technology Departments was held in Beijing, emphasizing the consolidation of comprehensive rectification results in the NEV sector's "rat race" competition, strengthening governance in key industries like PV, and using standard upgrades to phase out outdated capacity. The conference also stressed enhancing the mandatory national standard system in industrial and IT sectors. (2) According to Canalys' latest research, China's mainland smartphone market declined 4% YoY in Q2 2025 as the growth momentum from early-year state subsidies began to fade. Huawei regained the top position with shipments of 12.2 million units (18% market share), followed by vivo (11.8 million, 17%), OPPO (including OnePlus) at 10.7 million (16%), Xiaomi (10.4 million, fourth place with eight consecutive quarters of YoY growth), and Apple (10.1 million, fifth). (3) Tariffs: ① Bangladesh seeks Boeing aircraft purchases while negotiating US tariff reductions. ② South Korea proposes "Make American Shipbuilding Great Again" to expedite tariff agreements. ③ US Commerce Secretary Lutnick: The EU will pay 15% tariffs except for minor exemptions. Trump will review several agreements this week before finalizing rates. ④ Trump: Drug tariffs will be announced shortly; global tariffs likely at 15-20%. ⑤ Canadian PM: Trade talks with the US are at a critical stage. ⑥ Chile’s finance minister expects copper tariff exemptions.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply disruptions: Tin ore supply tightens in major production areas like Yunnan, with some smelters maintaining maintenance or minor production cuts in July (Bullish★). (2) Demand: PV sector: Post-installation rush, tin bar orders declined in east China, lowering operating rates for some producers. Electronics: South China’s electronics end-users entered the off-season amid high tin prices, sustaining only just-in-time procurement due to strong wait-and-see sentiment. Other sectors (e.g., tinplate, chemicals): Stable demand without exceeding expectations.

Spot market: The tin ingot spot market remained sluggish. Despite continuous price declines, overall levels stayed elevated, dampening purchasing enthusiasm among downstream and end-user enterprises, with most transactions limited to just-in-time procurement.
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